Evaluating the Lions' Positional Groups: 4/29/20 Edition

Will Matthew Stafford make the Detroit Lions roster in 2020????? [DetroitLions.com]

Now that the Lions have their rookie class all lined up, I thought I'd look at their roster at each positional group as it stands. The players I end up bolding are players that I think are absolute locks to make the roster right now. The ones in italics have shots to make the roster but might have to battle with each other or prove something in the preseason, so even guys I think might have a 75% chance at making the team may be italicized. The ones in regular print are probably on the outside looking in at the moment.

This could all change. I don't think the Lions are necessarily done with signings. They have the second-most cap room in the NFL right now. Some of that will go to signing the rookie class, and some of it will be used for potentially extending players like Kenny Golladay and Taylor Decker.

Even after those things are done, the Lions will probably still have some cushion to make some signings. We probably won't see those kinds of signings until later in the offseason when it's more possible for free agents to do workouts with teams or get physicals.

Here's where we stand:

Quarterback

1. Matthew Stafford

2. Chase Daniel

3. David Blough

This is the easiest positional group to predict. Stafford is QB1. The Lions used a decent chunk of change to sign Chase Daniel at QB2 a year after Stafford got hurt. The question is going to be if the Lions want to use a third roster spot on Blough. History says yes, especially after a season where the top two quarterbacks on the roster dealt with injury. Still, I wouldn't say he's quite a lock.

Running Back/Fullback

1. D'Andre Swift

2. Kerryon Johnson

3. Jason Huntley

4. Bo Scarbrough

5. Ty Johnson

6. Nick Bawden

7. Luke Sellers

8. Wes Hills

The draft drastically changed how the running back room looks. There are people thinking Johnson might be on the chopping block as well, but I don't see that right now unless the Lions want a more veteran running back on the roster (a move that hasn't worked well the past two seasons). I think the Lions only keep four running backs on the roster, which means the main competition is Scarbrough vs. Ty Johnson. Johnson might be redundant considering the team just drafted Huntley, a lightning-fast receiver with special teams value that the team can run gimmick plays with. But Johnson was the team's iron man at running back last year (not a difficult feat), and Scarbrough has a long history of injuries.

The Lions might also carry a fullback. I'd say Bawden still has the advantage over UDFA Luke Sellers, but it might not be by much. Bawden has gone on IR both seasons, so Detroit might be looking for somebody new in the position. If the Lions like one of their depth tight ends as a fullback/h-back instead, neither guy may make the team.

Wide Receiver

1. Kenny Golladay

2. Marvin Jones

3. Danny Amendola

4. Quintez Cephus

5. Marvin Hall

6. Geronimo Allison

7. Travis Fulgham

8. Chris Lacy

9. Tom Kennedy

10. Geremy Davis

11. Victor Bolden

The top three receivers here are the lockiest of locks. Cephus could technically be on the roster bubble as a fifth-rounder, but I really doubt it. Last season, the team five receivers on the main roster. There are seven guys I see on the depth chart after Cephus, and four of them have the inside track. Lacy and Fulgham started last year on the roster, with Fulgham being a 2019 draft pick. Marvin Hall's value might be just running go routes and having Stafford chuck it to him once or twice per game, but that's something the Lions liked doing, and the man was averaging like 40 yards per reception at one point. Allison was bad for the Packers as one of their top receivers, but the Lions might like him as an option at WR5.

Tight End

1. T.J. Hockenson

2. Jesse James

3. Isaac Nauta

4. Hunter Bryant

5. Matt Sokol

Hockenson is an easy lock and is looking to have a more consistent season after a year of NFL experience. Hopefully he can stay healthy. James had an awful 2019, but Detroit invested a lot in him, so you can't cut him especially with this little depth. Nauta eventually made the roster last season after tight end and fullback depth became necessities. The Lions might like Bryant in that role better, so it'll be a camp battle to watch. Bryant was a UDFA, but he was maybe the top available UDFA, so he makes a lot of sense. I think one of the two makes it as TE3, and the other goes to the practice squad.

Offensive Line

1. Frank Ragnow

2. Taylor Decker

3. Halapulivaati Vaitai

4. Joe Dahl

5. Kenny Wiggins

6. Jonah Jackson

7. Logan Stenberg

8. Tyrell Crosby

9. Oday Aboushi

10. Beau Benzschawel

11. Josh Garnett

12. Dan Skipper

13. Caleb Benenoch

14. Russell Bodine

15. Matt Nelson

The top four here are starters. Wiggins is either a starter or top interior depth. Jackson and Stenberg are 3rd-and-4th round draft picks who could potentially (hopefully) take on starting roles. Crosby is your main depth at tackle. Those are all locks. Aboushi is a guy who I thought was a lock a week ago as exerienced guard depth, and then the Lions ended up taking two guards in the draft. That also knocks Beau Benzschawel down a peg. He barely made the roster last year after a rough preseason, so he probably needs to show something in camp this year. Garnett was somebody who people thought the Lions might like as depth before they re-signed Wiggins/Aboushi and took two rookies. Skipper and Benenoch were on the final roster last year after guys got hurt. I think there's one, maybe two spots for these guys to take. It'll be interesting to see who grabs it.

Defensive Line

1. Trey Flowers

2. Danny Shelton

3. Julian Okwara

4. Da'Shawn Hand

5. Nick Williams

6. Romeo Okwara

7. Austin Bryant

8. John Atkins

9. John Penisini

10. Jashon Cornell

11. Kevin Strong

12. Jonathan Wynn

13. Frank Herron

14. Olive Sagapolu

Flowers is currently the closest thing to a star player Detroit's defense has. Shelton and Williams were relatively major signings. Julian Okwara is one of the team's high draft picks with versatility as end and linebacker. Hand is has versatility on the interior and as an end, and is a game-changer when healthy. Romeo Okwara and Bryant might not be seen as locks, but I think the team still really likes Romeo and want to give Bryant a second chance after being hurt for a good chunk of last year. I think one of Penisini or Atkins makes it. Atkins was thrust into playing time last year. He's a guy the coaching staff seems to like a lot, but he was underwhelming when he did play. Penisini might push him. Cornell seems like a practice squad guy, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if he made a push. Strong made the roster before getting placed on IR, so he's got a chance. It's not looking great. Wynn was on the roster at the end of the year too, but I think he's even less of a threat to make it at the moment.

Things could change a lot here. If the Lions do make more free agency moves, it's most likely for a defensive lineman that can contribute more immediately, which will make life a lot harder for those on the bubble.

Linebacker

1. Jamie Collins

2. Jahlani Tavai

3. Christian Jones

4. Jarrad Davis

5. Reggie Ragland

6. Elijah Lee

7. Jalen Reeves-Maybin

8. Anthony Pittman

9. Jason Cabinda

10. Christian Sam

This is a very interesting group to think about right now. Collins is one of the Lions' biggest free agency signings and immediately became the team's best linebacker if he can continue his great play from his time in New England. Tavai outperformed my expectations as a rookie last season, and it's clear the coaches love him. Jones probably should be more on the bubble, but it's very clear that Quinn and Patricia love him. I struggled to call Davis a lock. His attitude is praised across the board, but his play has never lived up to his expectations outside of a couple games. The team might not pick up his fifth-year option, and with the linebacker room looking really full right now, he could be a surprise cut before his fourth season. I still think the Lions want to give him at least one last chance, even if they don't pick up the option.

It gets interesting after that. Ragland and Lee were recent free agency signings that played opposite each other in the Super Bowl. I think that immediately pushes them up above the Lions' current depth linebackers/special teamers, but Reeves-Maybin//Pittman/Cabinda can still show they have value in the preseason and grab one of the last roster spots.

Defensive Backs

1. Tracy Walker

2. Desmond Trufant

3. Jeff Okudah

4. Duron Harmon

5. Will Harris

6. Amani Oruwariye

7. Justin Coleman

8. Jayron Kearse

9. Miles Killebrew (should probably be listed as LB, but the Lions still have him as a defensive back)

10. Jamal Agnew

11. C.J. Moore

12. Tony McRae

13. Mike Ford

14. Dee Virgin

15. Darryl Roberts

16. Mike Jackson

17. Jalen Elliott

18. Jeremiah Dinson

19. Bobby Price

This group is looking a lot better than it was last year. Walker's a star at this point, and he should pair really nicely with Harmon. I'd obviously prefer Slay/Okudah here, but Trufant/Okudah is still an upgrade over Slay/Melvin. Oruwariye and Harris have opportunity to develop without having as much immediate pressure, and can become key role players on this team. Coleman is still the likely starting nickel for now, and Kearse is solid safety depth.

After that, it's a fight for roster spots as special teamers. Killebrew is the team's reigning Special Teams Champ and Agnew's a lethal returner when he takes care of the ball, so they're still the most likely. After that, it's a madhouse. Roberts and Jackson could easily be more "on the bubble" players than I think as well. It's hard to tell at the moment.

Specialists

1. Matt Prater

2. Don Muhlbach

3. Arryn Siposs

4. Jack Fox

5. Steven Wirtel

Wirtel being signed as an UDFA gives Muhlbach some competition, but unless Wirtel just snaps circles around the Muhl, he's the guy. Siposs and Fox will be an interesting camp battle, and I can see the team reaching out to other punters. 

Overall Thoughts

I think on paper the roster looks a bit more solid than last season's, though I wouldn't be mad at more roster tweaking on defense. The only spot on offense that needs much help at the moment is tight end, but there's unfortunately not a great market for them. Otherwise that side of the ball looks great so long as one of Jackson/Stenberg can grab a starting interior spot. If not, that's definitely going to get rocky.

I counted 40 "locks" right now. Free agency pickups, injuries, camp/preseason performance, etc. are going to change that. That leaves 15 spots open for those players on the bubble. 

Here's my current roster prediction, under the assumption that the first 53 on the roster are the same numbers as last season. The game-day roster has moved up to 48 players. The complete roster is 55 people, but if I understand the new CBA correctly, those two players come from the practice squad.

QB (3): Stafford, Daniel, Blough

RB/FB (4): Swift, Johnson, Huntley, Scarbrough (PS: Johnson, Sellers)

WR (5): Golladay, Jones, Amendola, Cephus, Hall (PS: Fulgham)

TE (3): Hockenson, James, Bryant (also FB) (PS: Nauta)

OL (9): Ragnow, Decker, Vaitai, Dahl, Wiggins, Jackson, Stenberg, Crosby, Aboushi (PS: Benzschawel, Nelson)

DL (8): Flowers, Shelton, J. Okwara, Hand, Williams, R. Okwara, Bryant, Atkins (PS: Penisini, Cornell)

LB (6): Collins, Tavai, Jones, Davis, Ragland, Lee (PS: Pittman)

DB (12): Walker, Trufant, Okudah, Harmon, Oruwariye, Harris, Coleman, Kearse, Killebrew, Moore, McRae, Ford (PS: Jackson, Dinson)

P/K/LS (3): Prater, Siposs, Muhlbach (PS: Fox)

Agnew is the surprise cut here, with Huntley taking over return duties. PS predictions are always a crapshoot and even harder to tell who is and isn't eligible. I think Penisini might be the choice over Atkins eventually, but he starts as a potential practice squad call-up.