Monday, December 14, 2020

Thoughts On The Packers Ending The Lions' Season.... Again

Matthew Stafford might be out for the rest of the season with a rib injury, meaning means the Lions' season would have been over even with a win against Green Bay [Rey Del Rio/Getty]


The aftermath of last week's Lions game might not have told us much about where the team is now and especially not where it's going in the future, but it was still a very fun time. Detroit was still very technically in the playoff race and had a freshly unleashed Matthew Stafford at the helm. Despite the Lions' laundry list of injuries, Darrell Bevell had a chance this week to tie Matt Patricia's division win total against the dreaded Green Bay Packers.

Unfortunately, the Packers are very much not the Bears. Instead of having one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in Mitch Trubisky, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, an all-time great quarterback who is currently tearing through the league to prove he's still got a lot left in the tank despite just turning 37. He largely tore up the Lions defense in a still-close 31-24 game that was competitive until the end.

The Packers were sustaining long scoring drives for most of the game, keeping Detroit's abysmal defense on the field and tiring them out. The Lions were without several key players both on the defensive line and in the secondary, and there was truly nothing they could do about the Green Bay offense. The Packers only really had one big play in Davante Adams' 56-yard touchdown, but they didn't need big plays. The Lions were solid at forcing the Packers into third down situations, but Rodgers was lethal in those situations. The Packers converted 8 of their 11 third down situations.

The Lions are still mathematically in the playoff equation and could still get the last wild card spot with an 8-8 record and a lot of favors from other teams in the NFC, but this loss to the Packers probably cements them as a team outside the playoff race. The Packers are notorious Lion-killers, and this year is no different. If the Lions have an even mediocre defense, they might be able to stop some of those long, slow Packers scoring drives and win this game. But the Lions don't have a mediocre defense. They have a defense that has Jahlani Tavai trying to cover tight ends.

There was a lot of discussion over the course of the game about officiating, and I do think there were some absolutely dreadful calls in this game. The Lions ended up scoring on the drive anyway, but Marvin Jones' insane catch inside the 5-yard line should've been a catch. I don't know how it wasn't overturned and ruled one. There probably should've been a pass interference call on Matthew Stafford's throw to Quintez Cephus at the end of the first half. The onside kick at the end of regulation was a coin flip, and would've been nearly impossible to overturn no matter what the officials called. Unfortunately, the officials called it out of bounds, and the Packers were able to end the game in victory formation.

While those are tough calls, this isn't one of those egregious officiating jobs against the Lions that completely cost them the game (unlike last year's Lions-Packers game at Lambeau). This loss is entirely on the Lions for failing to stop one of the best offenses in the league. This is a game they could have won, but simply didn't.

But even if the Lions eke out a win and stay more firmly in playoff contention, the season would've likely been over anyway. Matthew Stafford took a rough hit while sliding late in the game, and his status for the rest of the season is unknown with a ribs injury. It's unfortunate. He was having another great game, going 24-34 for 244 yards and a touchdown. If not for some drops he puts up even better numbers. His only real issue this game was maybe holding onto the ball a little too long on some plays with pressure. It didn't help of course that the Lions banged-up offensive line was letting Packers through essentially right after the snap.

With the team's playoff hopes essentially dead, I'd be surprised if Stafford plays another down this season. Some are already wondering aloud if that was the last time we'll ever see him play in a Lions jersey. I don't think that's the case. Unless Stafford decides to retire for his health (which I wouldn't blame him for one bit), I don't think he's getting traded this offseason. The cap hit is still large and he's had enough recent injury concerns that will make him even more difficult to find a suitor. I think at most the Lions draft a young quarterback in the first round and let him learn for a bit while Stafford plays out his contract.

So what does this mean for the rest of the season? It probably means Chase Daniel is playing quarterback, which is a lot less fun than Matthew Stafford. Daniel looked rough in his short appearance on Sunday. I don't see him being able to do much more in the last few weeks. Bevell was able to unleash a quarterback like Stafford in these last two weeks. He can't do that with Daniel.

That's good news for Lions fans that wanted the team to tank for draft position anyway. This defense gets more banged up and plays worse basically every week, and now the offense is going to be hamstrung by a much worse quarterback, a banged-up offensive line that's leaking like a sieve, and various receivers/running backs also playing hurt.

The best-case situation for the Lions under Bevell with playoffs out of the picture was looking competitive against good teams while losing close games and getting draft position. They'll probably have no trouble getting the draft position now. The "playing competitive games" and "being entertaining" parts of the equation aren't looking as good now, though.

Monday, December 7, 2020

What, If Anything, Does The Lions' Win Over the Bears Mean?

Darrell Bevell and Matthew Stafford had just about as good of a game as you could ask against the Bears [Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today]


Sunday was the first game the Detroit Lions played after firing head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell took on the role of interim head coach, and the team won a thrilling come-from-behind game against the Chicago Bears 34-30. Most of the last three seasons have been soul-sucking, even when the Lions won. This ended up being an exciting game even for some glaring problems that will need to be addressed by the next regime. But does it actually mean anything?

The answer is probably not much. The Lions are technically one game behind the last wild card spot in the NFC, with a tiebreaker win over the Cardinals and a chance to split the season against the Vikings in the final stretch. However, the Lions played a spiraling Chicago squad that has now lost six straight games, and Detroit needed a little bit of luck to get past them. The Lions defense is still a complete mess, and there are injuries all around the team.

I don't think this game was completely meaningless, however. There are a few things I think we can glean from this game.

First off, the offense played maybe its best game of the season, even without starting running back D'Andre Swift, star receiver Kenny Golladay, and with starting tackle Tyrell Crosby hurting his ankle. The Lions had 460 yards on the day, most of which came from the air. Detroit faced a hefty Bears defense and only punted twice. That's a really good sign.

That's all because Matthew Stafford played his best game of the season on Sunday. He had 402 passing yards for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Eight different Lions caught passes from Stafford, even without Golladay, Swift and Marvin Hall, who was released earlier this weekend. Stafford looked like his old self, and he aired it out a heck of a lot more than he did earlier this season.

Does this mean the more conservative gameplan in the passing game was more on Patricia than Bevell? It's hard to say. Bevell might just be unleashing Stafford more because he really doesn't have much to lose at this point. A more fiery Stafford lets him win more games, which gives him a better shot at becoming the full-time head coach at the end of the season (or at least keeping his job as offensive coordinator). No matter what, it's still good to see a more unleashed Stafford. Bevell said he just wanted the guys to have fun out there this week, and No. 9 definitely looked like he was having a blast. The pick was unfortunate, but for the majority of the game, Stafford looked like he was once again The Guy.

There were still some problems from the offense of the last 11 weeks this week, though. Adrian Peterson did have 57 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he got them averaging 3.6 yards per carry. There was still a little too much run-run-pass in the offensive gameplan for my liking, but that's one of my few complaints on the offensive side of the ball.

Marvin Jones had a killer day as Stafford's number one option with 116 yards and a score on 8 receptions. T.J. Hockenson continues to play really well as the top tight end option on the team. Quintez Cephus, Danny Amendola and even Mohamed Sanu had solid contributions. Jamal Agnew's role as a gadget player didn't look great, however. He's a very talented returner, but he adds enough on either offense or defense to warrant a roster spot at this point.

The defense showed that it still needs a lot of work when the next GM comes in. Mitch Trubisky now has a passer rating of over 100 in five of his five games against the Lions. Trubisky is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, if not the worst. Having him torch the Lions every time they meet is unacceptable. The Lions secondary is very banged up right now, but even considering that, they need to do better.

The linebackers definitely still need a lot of work along with the secondary. There were way too many missed and broken tackles on the second and third levels. Jamie Collins either looks like a complete stud or a complete liability when he's out there, with very little in between. That's still a considerable amount better than the guys he plays next to.

The defensive line didn't get completely gashed, but they still gave up way too many yards to David Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson. There were impressive plays late in the game from Romeo Okwara, Kevin Strong and John Penisini, but you still want to see more from Detroit's defensive front.

If there's anything to learn from this game, it's that there's still enough talent and weapons on offense for the Lions to be one of the better teams in the league at scoring. That it's been held back for so long in Patricia's tenure really is a huge indictment on that regime (and also on Bevell if he did play a role in the more conservative playcalling from earlier in the season). On the other hand, the next GM and head coach have a lot of work to do with that defense. It's been discussed ad nauseum how a "defensive guru" like Patricia could create a unit this bad is completely ridiculous, but it does bear repeating. The defense is atrocious, and I don't think it would be that different even if it was at full health.

This game probably doesn't play much of a factor in how heavily Bevell is considered for the next coaching job, but if he does continue to call plays like this, he'll go further up the list of candidates. If he can indeed win most of the last few games against quality opponents and possibly even sneak the Lions in the playoff race, he'll deserve it. I don't know if that gets him above a candidate like Robert Saleh of the 49ers (who seems tailor-made for the Detroit gig), but it'll definitely make the decision harder.

The same goes for Matthew Stafford. The Lions are going to have some interesting decisions to make with Stafford's future. I'm not nearly as convinced as many are that Stafford is going to be trade-bait this offseason (that contract will still a difficult one to dump on another team even if he's playing well). I think if anything, they'll draft a young quarterback to learn under Stafford while he plays out his current contract. That will become even more likely if the Lions hire an offensive-minded head coach like Joe Brady or Eric Bienemy (if Bevell stays or if the Lions go more defensive-minded like Saleh, I think the regime might be more comfortable with a more proven commodity like Stafford sticking around). If he continues to play more like he did in this game and less like he has against, say, the Vikings, it'll be a lot tougher decision for anyone who does want him gone.

But these are things we won't know until week 17. This team is basically a blank slate now that Patricia is gone, and we only have a one-game sample size against a Bears team in complete freefall to know what they look like without him. One thing I do know is that I had a lot of fun watching this game, and that was nice for a change.