What To Expect When You're Not Expecting: 49ers 41, Lions 33

Photos taken seconds before disaster [Kithmon F. Dozier/Detroit Free Press]

A lot of the analysis that occurs after week one of the NFL season is naturally how a team performed against its preseason expectations. The NFL has a long off-season, with a months-long free agency period and more months between the NFL Draft and even the start of OTAs (organized team activities), much less training camp, the preseason and the season itself.

Over half of the calendar year for the NFL is offseason. Because of that, there's a lot of anticipation, a lot of hypothesizing, a lot of fans trying to decipher coaching changes, roster moves and practice reports to predict how their favorite team will perform when the season does come.

If you're a fanbase like the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, or the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the expectations are pretty clear because of coaching/talent levels: Super Bowl or bust. For Chicago Bears or New York Jets fans, you're likely not expecting much team success but want to see your shiny new quarterbacks play well (or play at all, if you're a Bears fan). 

But what do expect from a team like the Detroit Lions? The end of the Matt Patricia/Bob Quinn era in Detroit was ugly. The team looked like it had given up before Patricia was given the boot in the middle of the 2020 season. Star quarterback Matthew Stafford, not wanting to endure yet another complete rebuild of the team, demanded a trade and got sent to a playoff contender in Los Angeles. The cupboard of talent left behind by the previous regime was both barren and expensive.

There have been a lot of positive reports about the new Lions regime. Brad Holmes has made some savvy moves as general manager so far, and handled the Stafford situation with professionalism. He cut some bad contracts left behind by Quinn loose, preferring young talent he could develop to some of the struggling veterans who were in Detroit. Dan Campbell, though some of the national media still can't get past the "bite off kneecaps" line in his original presser, has been praised by players. Reports from camp were full of talk about younger players who didn't show much for Patricia starting to make strides, having fun, learning the game of football rather than fearing the wrath of a power-tripping rocket scientist.

That's all fine and good, but what are the actual expectations once this team hit the turf? The team might be improving and learning, but the bar is still low. Matthew Stafford could carry mediocre and outright bad teams to wins because of excellent quarterbacking. The roster still needs at least another offseason before it's remotely competitive. You love to hear that the defensive players are improving in practice, but this is still a defense that was historically bad last season. In reality the only expectations you could really have are low when it comes to actual wins on the field, but hopeful in terms that the team would fight hard, play competitively and maybe even pull an upset or two against a superior team.

I was not expecting the Lions to come out like they did in the first half on Sunday. I expected mistakes, but the team looked disastrous by the end of the half. While I expected poor defense, I didn't expect the San Francisco 49ers to average nearly 10 yards per play. While I expected Goff to struggle, I didn't expect him to completely stall out as many times in 49ers territory as he did.

In the waning moments of the half, the Lions gave up a touchdown, threw a pick-6 on a terrible Goff decision, allowed San Francisco to march down the field for a field goal in about 40 seconds, then had an almost-disastrous botched kick return as the final seconds of the clock ticked down. My expectations for this team were already on the floor, and somehow that half of football lowered them. I was not the only one in the stadium to think this, as boos rained down from the stands (encouraged by a shockingly large number of San Francisco fans in Ford Field).

And then I was not expecting what came after. If any hope remained in Detroit, it went away when cornerback Jeff Okudah failed to make a play on an underthrown ball to Deebo Samuel that became a 79-yard touchdown. The 43-yard screen pass touchdown to D'Andre Swift on the Lions' next drive was fun, but it felt meaningless. The Lions were completely overpowered; the team looked dead in the water. Until they weren't.

After two drives where Detroit had to punt and then turned it over on downs, they were finally able to march down the field, culminating in a Jamaal Williams rushing touchdown. They succeeded on the two-point conversion. It seemed like basic garbage time touchdown with the 49ers playing more prevent defense. Then the Lions recovered the onside kick. They marched down the field again. Goff threw a touchdown to Quintez Cephus, followed by another two-point conversion. Then they forced a fumble on the play the 49ers should have clinched the game on. Detroit went down the field again before eventually succumbing to the San Francisco defense on the 24 yard line.

There are plenty of caveats you can make about this Lions comeback. The 49ers took their feet off the gas in the second half. They weren't going to unload the playbook on a team like Detroit in what was largely an uncompetitive game, and most defenses go into "bend-don't-break" mode when they're leading by four touchdowns. Still, the Lions' determination in playing until the end of the half almost paid off. They made a much better team sweat it out in the end. After lowering expectations as far as they could, they started to look more like the "bad but fun and competitive" way that I thought I was going to see more of in the first half.

I don't think the play of the fourth quarter Lions is going to sustain itself all the time this season. Detroit will make more catastrophic mistakes with the roster it has. But when you see how this team fought, you can hold onto just a little bit of hope as a Lions fan for the first time since Jim Caldwell was coaching.

Quick Hits

Jared Goof: Because of the fourth-quarter heroics, there's a lot of debate in Lions circles on whether or not Jared Goff had a good overall performance. I think that's a little silly. He was largely not good. The missed touchdown pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown was inexcusable, as was the pick-6. Goff is extremely reliant on checkdowns to tight ends and running backs. While those tight ends and running backs had good games, you'd still like to see him at least try to move the ball downfield before miracle comeback attempt time. Goff had about as many completions at or behind the line of scrimmage as he did over 10 yards. A lot of fans are seeing the fact that he completed 38 passes on a context-free box score and saying "that's good!" On those 38 completions, Goff only had 338 yards. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo almost matched that on 21 fewer completions and 32 fewer attempts. Not great. He does have one excuse, though...

Fried Receivers: This has to be the worst wide receiver unit in the league, and it got worse when Tyrell Williams went to the locker room after a head-to-head hit. I understand why the team didn't spend big on any top receiver free agents in year one of a rebuild, but that room is just completely barren. Amon-Ra St. Brown might end up being the top receiver on the team by the end of the season, and he's a fourth-round pick in his rookie season. Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond made a few plays down the stretch late in the game, but these receivers with this quarterback just seems like a match made in hell.

But... A Running Game!: Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift looked great both rushing and receiving. Though the Lions had to give up on the run early in the game with such a lopsided score, they looked good early in the game. The interior line made some big holes, and rookie tackle Penei Sewell held his own against Joey Bosa. Williams and Swift were also extremely successful in the passing game, despite one bad Swift drop.

Coaching Bits and Bobs: A lot of people who otherwise didn't listen to a single word Dan Campbell said this offseason expected him to be an ultra-conservative, run-first head coach simply because he seems like a meathead and said a thing about biting kneecaps. While this team is going to emphasize the running game when they can, they completely abandoned it when they needed to. Campbell also went for it on fourth down five times. While some of those attempts were late in the game when the Lions needed to go for it if they wanted to come back, two attempts were early in the game where other Lions regimes would have punted or attempted a long field goal. That was nice to see. I thought most of Anthony Lynn's offensive playcalling was solid and creative. Maybe as a Lions fan I'm just shocked that a coach is actually, finally making use of pre-snap motion like the rest of the league. There were some screen plays that got blown up right away that I didn't like, and the playcalling is at least a little hamstrung by a quarterback who won't throw past the sticks, but overall I liked it.

Defense Bad: I don't have a lot to say about the defensive side of the ball other than "it was a disaster." Okudah had some boneheaded plays, but his Achilles injury puts expectations for this defense even lower. He was hopefully going to make some strides this season. Garoppolo had way too many wide open receivers in this game, and was pressured way too little. Derrick Barnes made some plays down the stretch in very limited snaps, and he might get an increased role in the coming weeks because the other linebackers looked bad. Overall, they seemed lost. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had his work cut out for him with this roster, but yikes.

Around the League: Since I was actually in the stadium for the Lions game, I missed most of this week's games. As much as I'd like to count out Aaron Rodgers after his horrendous game against the Saints, I can't. He's had these games before, and he's always bounced back. Still, it's nice to see the rest of the NFC North struggle as much as (or even worse than) the Lions in week one. It probably won't hold, but it's enough for me right now.

For the Sunday Night Football game, however, man. That one was hard to watch. Matthew Stafford's debut for the Rams was basically perfect. He hit almost all of his throws on the money, including some beautiful deep passes. While the Rams running game and defense did sputter at times, they held on especially at the end of the game. It was basically everything I wanted to see with Stafford for 12 years in Detroit, and I hate it. Happy for him, but I hate it.