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| this is not a good example of social distancing [Daniel Mears/Detroit News] |
Well, howdy there. It's been a couple months. A whole lot of stuff has happened since I last posted here, in the halcyon days of The Bachelor Presents: Listen To Your Heart. I've had some personal stuff happening, and so I've been focusing on getting those things in order, largely.
But I've got the bug to write again, and sports are coming back. Golf and NASCAR have been back for months. The Tigers play an exhibition game tonight, and then baseball as a whole starts up later this week. Basketball comes back next week in bubble form, and I believe the NHL starts the week after that. So let's talk about some sports!
I did a roster review of the Lions right after the draft where I tried to predict who was going to make the team. Not much about the roster has changed, but the approach of the NFL going into the season sure has. It's looking like there might not even be preseason games played. There were talks about potentially only having 80-man rosters for camp instead of the normal 90.
Those potential actions work in the context of limiting the spread of COVID, which is still very much a threat to the season, but they probably suck for a lot of players. This was already a difficult offseason for journeyman-type players, late-round draft picks and UDFAs, as they largely haven't been able to work out for teams. They're already at a disadvantage trying to compete against established players, and this whole situation hasn't helped anything.
So, I think with that in mind, teams will be even more likely to go with bubble players who already have experience in the system. Let's look at the roster. Just like last time, locks are bolded, bubble players are italicized, and longshots are in normal text.
Quarterback
1. Matthew Stafford
2. Chase Daniel
3. David Blough
This hasn't changed since last time. Stafford is your franchise quarterback. Chase Daniel is a backup that got signed for too much money to be cut. The thing that changes is that I could see Blough's roster chances improving as a guy who's been in Darrell Bevell's system for a year already. Daniel's still the backup and shouldn't have much issue learning the offense considering he's been around the block a few times. But another quarterback in the film room and putting in reps on the second/third teams to help the newcomers transition into the offense is a valuable asset.
Running Back
1. D'Andre Swift
2. Kerryon Johnson
3. Jason Huntley
4. Bo Scarbrough
5. Ty Johnson
6. Nick Bawden
7. Luke Sellers
8. Wes Hills
I think Scarbrough and Johnson have a bit more of an edge to make the team with their experience, as Huntley wasn't able to get acquainted with the offense in rookie camp or OTAs. I still think he's a relative lock and the team wouldn't have drafted him if they didn't really like what he brings to the table. I do think Sellers is going to have a lot more ground to cover if he wants to become a bubble player now. Bawden's been hurt two seasons in a row, but he's got experience and proven special teams value.
Wide Receiver
1. Kenny Golladay
2. Marvin Jones
3. Danny Amendola
4. Quintez Cephus
5. Marvin Hall
6. Chris Lacy
7. Jamal Agnew
8. Geronimo Allison
9. Travis Fulgham
10. Tom Kennedy
11. Geremy Davis
12. Victor Boldin
I no longer have Cephus as a lock, though I still think he'll probably be WR4 going into the season. They might want to go with somebody like Hall or Allison who have more experience and stash Cephus on the practice squad while he builds rapport with the QBs and learns behind the vets. Agnew throws a bit of a wrench in things. He's got an upward climb proving himself in the receivers room after transitioning from cornerback this offseason, but he's a former Pro Bowl returner. That special teams value might be all he needs to keep his spot on the team.
Tight End
1. T.J. Hockenson
2. Jesse James
3. Isaac Nauta
4. Hunter Bryant
5. Matt Sokol
Nothing has changed here. This group falls off a cliff after Hock, but they pay way too much money to James to cut him. Nauta and Bryant will fight for TE3/HB roles. Sokol is a longshot.
Offensive Line
1. Frank Ragnow
2. Taylor Decker
3. Halapoulivati Vaitai
4. Joe Dahl
5. Kenny Wiggins
6. Jonah Jackson
7. Logan Stenberg
8. Tyrell Crosby
9. Oday Aboushi
10. Beau Benzschawel
11. Dan Skipper
12. Josh Garnett
13. Matt Nelson
14. Caleb Benenoch
15. Russell Bodine
The locks and bubble players haven't really changed here, but the potential depth chart has. In a normal offseason, I'd probably pencil Jonah Jackson in at one of the starting guard spots. I don't think that's necessarily the case anymore. You shouldn't count him out, but for the time being I think Patricia and Bevell might want to go with some continuity from last year while the rookies adapt to pro ball. The offensive line reserve positions are basically an open tryout if you ask me, but I think Aboushi's experience is really valuable for his chances.
Defensive Line
1. Trey Flowers
2. Danny Shelton
3. Julian Okwara
4. Nick Williams
5. Da'Shawn Hand
6. Romeo Okwara
7. Austin Bryant
8. John Atkins
9. John Penisini
10. Jashon Cornell
11. Kevin Strong
12. Jonathan Wynn
13. Frank Herron
14. Olive Sagapolu
Rookies not being able to do rookie training camp and OTAs probably affects John Penisini's chances at starting the year on the roster more than any other player. It was already going to be a tight race between him and John Atkins for the backup nose tackle spot. Atkins struggled last season, but the coaches really seem to like him and he has experience. I think Penisini still finds himself on the main roster by the end of the season, but he starts on the practice squad now. I moved Bryant to the bubble from a lock. I still think he ends up on the team because the Lions don't want to give up on him yet, but he's probably less safe than other guys.
I thought the Lions might make more moves here, but they didn't. Not a lot of people have been making a ton of moves in the NFL anyway. So. *shrug*
Linebacker
1. Jamie Collins
2. Jahlani Tavai
3. Christian Jones
4. Jarrad Davis
5. Reggie Ragland
6. Jalen Reeves-Maybin
7. Miles Killebrew
8. Elijah Lee
9. Anthony Pittman
10. Jason Cabinda
11. Christian Sam
Last time around, I struggled to call Jarrad Davis a lock and thought he may even be a surprise cut. Even though Detroit didn't pick up his fifth-year option, I think he's probably in better standing now. With so much of this offseason being off-the-field, that's probably allowed Davis to endear himself even more to the coaching staff in any online meetings, since his attitude, knowledge and work ethic have always been praised. Not being on the field also hurts Lee and Ragland's chances. Reeves-Maybin and Killebrew (moved here from defensive backs even though for some reason he's still listed by the Lions as a safety after several years) have proven special teams value which may make it even more of an uphill climb for the free agent signings.
Defensive Backs
1. Tracy Walker
2. Jeff Okudah
3. Desmond Trufant
4. Duron Harmon
5. Will Harris
6. Amani Oruwariye
7. Justin Coleman
8. Jayron Kearse
9. C.J. Moore
10. Tony McRae
11. Mike Ford
12. Dee Virgin
13. Darryl Roberts
14. Mike Jackson
15. Jeremiah Dinson
16. Jalen Elliott
17. Bobby Price
Locks haven't changed. Okudah is the one exception as far as not penciling rookies into starting roles yet, because he's absolutely without a doubt needed there. Agnew's move to wide receiver makes things a lot more interesting for the depth spots in this position group. Most of these guys are still competing with Agnew in the sense that special teams value is going to decide these roster spots, but they also will have more opportunities to impress the coaches in position drills and in scrimmages with one less person at their position.
Special Teams
1. Matt Prater
2. Don Muhlbach
3. Arryn Siposs
4. Jack Fox
5. Steven Wirtel
Nothing's changed except that the shorter offseason has probably secured Don Muhlbach's reign as longsnapper even more. Punter battle is still open.
My Day 1 53-Man Roster Prediction
QB (3): Stafford, Daniel Blough
RB/FB (5): Swift, K. Johnson, Huntley, Scarbrough, Bawden (PS: T. Johnson)
WR (5): Golladay, Jones, Amendola, Cephus, Hall (PS: Fulgham)
TE (3): Hockenson, James, Nauta (PS: Bryant)
OL (9): Ragnow, Decker, Vaitai, Dahl, Wiggins, Jackson, Stenberg, Crosby, Aboushi (PS: Benzschawel, Nelson)
DL (8): Flowers, Shelton, J. Okwara, Hand, Williams, R. Okwara, Bryant, Atkins (PS: Penisini, Cornell)
LB (6): Collins, Tavai, Jones, Davis, Reeves-Maybin, Killebrew (PS: Pittman)
DB (11): Walker, Okudah, Trufant, Harmon, Oruwariye, Harris, Coleman, Kearse, Moore, McRae, Ford (PS: Jackson, Dinson, Elliott)
ST (3): Prater, Siposs, Muhlbach (PS: Fox)
Overall, not a whole lot has changed on my thoughts. Last time I already had Agnew as a surprise cut, and his positional move didn't help his argument here. I put Bawden on the roster assuming he stays healthy throughout camp, and I now have Nauta on the team instead of Bryant. The main shake-up was in the linebacker room, where I have Killebrew and Reeves-Maybin instead of Ragland and Lee.
Practice squad predictions stayed the same outside of flipping Nauta/Bryant and keeping an extra defensive back instead of a fullback.
Hopefully we'll get some good info now that the teams should be going to camp soon. Naturally, if the NFL and the Players Association can't come up with an agreement before camp, that makes it even more of a struggle for some of these players to impress coaches.
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